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The ACC In Review

April 11, 2013 Leave a comment

While next year the ACC will be adding Syracuse, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh from the Big East, this year was another down year for the conference. The preseason favorite, North Carolina State, failed to live up to the expectations. While Virginia Tech and Maryland, who dominated the non-conference had the wheels come off in conference. Wake Forest and Clemson did what was expected of them, while Georgia Tech and Boston College showed promise. Then there was Miami, who electrified the conference, and brought national attention with them.

Overall, it was a fun year to cover the conference due to the ever change landscape of it. But overall, it was a down year for the ACC. This continues a trend of lackluster seasons for the once billed “best basketball conference in America”. The Big East split and the disappointing tournament for the Mountain West should help the ACC to move up the conference ranks, along with the three additions. This shift in the college landscape couldn’t have come at a better time for the ACC.

Lets look back on some of the teams and see how their seasons went.

Better Than Expected

Miami – Any talk about the ACC this season needs to start with the Canes. The oldest team in the NCAA this season, and they need their experience. The expectations for Miami were to contend for the top 4. After a slow non-conference, along with suspensions and injuries, there was some worry in Coral Gables. But then sophomore point guard Shane Larkin took over the team. Miami cruised to a first place finish in conference, and an ACC Tournament win. They beat Duke and North Carolina by 20 plus, and held off the Tar Heels in the ACC Final. Coach Larranaga was rightfully named the ACC Coach of he Year, but Shane Larkin was robbed of Player of the Year for the conference. The Canes wrapped up a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but unfortunately lost in the Sweet 16 to Marquette.

North Carolina – The Tar Heels finished an odd season with a loss to Kansas in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The non-conference was a strange period for UNC, as they were attempting to find what line-ups worked. They were beat badly by Butler and Texas, but were able to knock off #19 UNLV in the Dean Dome. Conference play started with a loss at Virginia, but a couple of games later the Tar Heels took off. Coach Roy Williams switched to a 4 guard line up, which really showcased James Michael McAdoo along with Reggie Bullock. The Tar Heels went from a probably NIT team to finishing 3rd in the conference, and playing for the ACC title in Greensboro.

Boston College – Don’t be fooled by their 7-11 record in conference. the Eagles were young this season, but they were one of the toughest match-ups for everyone especially in Chestnut Hill. Boston College was on the wrong side of a lot of close contest during the year, and had chances at knocking off some of the bigger teams in conference. They did put together a great 4 game winning streak at the end of the season, and played a close game against Miami in the second round of the ACC Tournament. Just a look back at some of their games in conference show how close they were to possibly finishing at 500. Second game of the conference season was a 5 point loss to #23 North Carolina State, two games later a 3 point loss at Wake Forest, that was followed by a 1 point loss to Miami, then a 5 point loss at Maryland, later came the heart breaking one point loss to Duke, and two games later was a 3 point loss to Florida State. Like I said, they were a young team this year. Everyone is returning, and returning with a lot of experience, watch out for the Eagles next year.

Below Expectations

North Carolina State – The second team behind Miami that always needs to be mentioned in any discussion about the ACC is North Carolina State. The Wolfpack were a preseason top 5 team, they were picked to win the ACC, and they had the projected ACC Player of the Year, C.J. Leslie. Instead, they struggled throughout the year, and wrapped up the season 5th in the ACC. They made a run to the ACC Semi-Finals, before losing to Miami. They still found themselves in the NCAA Tournament, but lost in the first round to Temple. The talk in the preseason was about North Carolina State being back on the map after so many disappointing seasons, instead they failed to reach the loft preseason expectations and are now feeling the backlash of the NBA Draft.

Maryland – The Terps fall into this category because of the sub-500 record and the up and down play. Maryland was picked to finish 6th in the conference, instead they finished 7th and tied with Florida State. It wasn’t a bad season in College Park, but another missed chance at the NCAA Tournament was the final result. There were positives, beating Duke twice and beating North Carolina State, but then there were negatives like being swept by Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida State.

Virginia Tech – Not many knew how the Hokies would be with first year coach James Johnson, but then they started the season 13-0 including a win over Oklahoma State. They were running an up-tempo fast style and scoring at a rapid rate. As excitement built around the new look Hokies, so did the expectations. Once conference play started, many of the flaws were exposed. Beginning with Maryland putting up 94 points in the ACC opener. Virginia Tech struggled with their identity after this. Erick Green had an amazing season, which finished with him receiving ACC Player of the Year Honors. However, he was the only Hokie with a good season, the rest of the team was not able to find any consistency to help Green. Virginia Tech is in a re-building process, and unfortunately the expectations became too high for them to handle during the season.

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ACC Power Rankings

January 27, 2013 1 comment

1) Miami: Is there any question the right now Miami is the best team in the conference? They are the most well balanced team, and they have a killer instinct. Miami can attack inside and outside, in the half court or in transition. They also don’t take their foot off the pedal, instead of giving teams a chance to make a run, they continue to attack.

2) North Carolina State: They hit an odd point, when they lost at Maryland and at Wake Forest. But they found their offense again last night vs UNC. The Wolfpack are still an up and down team, some nights they looks like a top team, and other nights they struggle. This week will tell a lot about them. How do they handle the stout Virginia defense, and can they match the energy of Miami?

3) Duke: Strong bounce back on Saturday beating Maryland. They still have plenty of holes without Ryan Kelly, but on Saturday they were able to get anything they wanted against one of the better defense in the conference. Wednesday night showed how vulnerable Duke can be. Miami brought more energy and was never afraid of them, they left Duke exposed.

4) Virginia: Took care of business this week, in impressive fashion also. Double digit wins at Virginia Tech and home vs Boston College. I’m still not sure how UVa can compete against the top teams in conference, but as long as they take care of business against the bottom teams, they can hang around the top of the conference. Tuesday night will be a big test, luckily they get NCST at home.

5) North Carolina: Tar Heels took care of business against Georgia Tech, but then followed it up by getting out played at NCST. Similar to their game against Butler, where they were out of it the entire way and came back at the end to make it look closer. The next three are winnable, and games that they should take care of business before a tough back to back at Miami and at Duke.

6) Florida State: Tough call to put them here after tonight’s game, but they beat Maryland in College Park, which gives them the edge. Not sure what to make of the Noles. They came back during the week to beat Clemson, but struggled mightily at Miami. They had no answers on defense for the Canes, and on offense couldn’t get anything going. They welcome Maryland then Duke to Tallahassee this week, which will tell us a lot more about them moving forward. I think tonight raised a lot of questions about toughness and the offense.

7) Maryland: The Terps looked to be finding some offense after struggling for a couple of games with scoring. Unfortunately they weren’t able to put together a good defensive effort at Duke. Maryland is one game below 500 right now, and they have two games this week that can get wins and get over the 500 mark. It won’t be easy beating FSU on the road, but with how they looked tonight and after how the game at Maryland went, this one the Terps should take advantage of. They return home to face Wake Forest on Saturday.

8) Wake Forest: Odd to put Wake Forest up so high, but after the came back from double digits to beat NCST, they deserve some credit. Unfortunately they lost by 20 at Georgia Tech to follow it up. We haven’t hit the half way point yet of conference play, and Wake Forest has three wins. They need something to cheer about in Winston-Salem.

9) Clemson: Tigers got a great game today from Milton Jennings who had 28 points and 14 rebounds, and hit 16 free throws to beat Virginia Tech. Clemson needed this home win after giving up a lead and losing to FSU on a buzzer beater earlier in the week. Just like Maryland, Clemson is at 3-4 and the next two are both winnable games that can get them to 4-3. Clemson host Georgia Tech and then goes on the road to Boston College.

10)Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets finally got their first win of the ACC season, beating Wake Forest by 20. That gives them a slight edge out of the bottom three teams in my eyes. BC and Virginia Tech had rough weeks. Lets see how Georgia Tech follows up the win vs Wake Forest when they go on the road to face Clemson, before they welcome a possibly surging Virginia team to Atlanta.

11) Boston College: Tough stretch for the Eagles, they just played Miami, Maryland, and Virginia. They were close in the Miami and Maryland games to grabbing upsets. At Virginia they couldn’t hang on in the second half and lost by double digits. Doesn’t get any easier for BC with the Tar Heels coming up to Boston this week.

12) Virginia Tech: Hokies can’t find defense or another scorer besides Erick Green. Despite his 35 points against Virginia, they still lost by double digits and only managed to score 58 points in the game. Today, the game got away from them at the end, they were close with Clemson, but once again, no one could step up to lead the team to victory.

Games To Watch

Tuesday: NCST at Virginia – A battle of contrasting styles, can Virginia get enough offense to match North Carolina State or can they slow them down enough to get a marquee win at home.

Saturday: NCST at Miami – Big week for the Wolfpack, how will they respond in back to back tough games, and how does Miami play now they have the target on their back.

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ACC Power Rankings

January 15, 2013 Leave a comment

A little bit later on my power rankings for the second full week of ACC play. Lets get right into everything.

1) North Carolina State – Beating Duke is huge for the Wolfpack, especially at home. They took care of business early on in the week by beating Georgia Tech. This is where they expect themselves to be in conference, now how do they respond?

2) Miami – It was a close call between them and NC ST for the top spot. Miami has looked really strong even without Reggie Johnson. What is most impressive about Miami, which should have the rest of the conference nervous, Miami makes winning plays. They pulled away late at UNC during the week, and when Maryland cut the lead, they didn’t hesitate, and made two back to back buckets to ice the game. They would have overtaken NC ST if they had scored more than 19 in the first half vs Maryland.

3) Duke – Tough break for the Blue Devils to lose Ryan Kelly, and have the lingering injury to Seth Curry. Kelly is such a large part of what makes Duke such a tough match up. At times on Saturday they struggled in finding a goto player to end runs by North Carolina State. It’s tough to lose players in conference because of the short turn around between games, tough to practice the new game plan.

4) Florida State – They lost on Saturday to a desperate North Carolina team, doesn’t excuse it, but they still look like one of the better teams in conference. The defense has been on point since conference play started, most notably was in the comeback at Maryland. Okaro White is coming along as one of the most underrated players in the conference, and Snear is emerging as the player everyone thought in the preseason.

5) Maryland – The offense is struggling right now for the Terps, but they are still one of the better defensive teams in the conference. The collapse vs Florida State was bad, and the lose at Miami was even worse. Maryland is young, and wasn’t tested in the non conference, it was a tough week, but I would expected the Terps to bounce back.

6) North Carolina – The Tar Heels responded to a game they had to win at Florida State to avoid an 0-3 start. They have to week off before they host Maryland on Saturday. It will be interesting to see how they respond after having a long break in conference.

7) Wake Forest – I know, I’m shocked also to see them this high. However, they have put together back to back wins in close games. They came back against Boston College on Saturday and edged Virginia during the week.

8) Virginia – Two bad loses for Virginia after they beat North Carolina to open conference play. Losing to Wake Forest even on the road isn’t a good sign, to then lose by 15 at Clemson is worse. Virginia already struggled on offense, and now they travel to Florida State. That win against North Carolina might have just been the Cavilers catching the Heels at the right time.

9) Clemson – Tigers had to grab a win during the weekend and did so with a big win. Beating Virginia by 15 might be able to give Clemson some momentum. They are currently playing Wake Forest in a winnable game, and then travel to North Carolina State. Crazy things happen in conference, and if Clemson gains some confidence they could catch North Carolina State napping.

10) Boston College – The Eagles put together a good effort against North Carolina State, unfortunately they couldn’t get the win. They bounced back and played Virginia Tech tight, before they pulled away down the stretch. They had a good chance to go on the road Saturday and steal a road win from Wake Forest but they weren’t able and it might cost them later.

11) Virginia Tech – They not only grabbed a win on Saturday, they held an opponent to under 70. A good sign for the Hokies going forward even if it was against Georgia Tech. Next three will tell a lot about them, vs Wake, vs Virginia, at Clemson. These three games that Virginia Tech could win, and they are three teams that struggle to score.

12) Georgia Tech – They only team left in conference without a win. They blew a big opportunity on Saturday when they lost Virginia Tech. Free throws cost the Yellow Jackets down the stretch. For a team that doesn’t score a lot, they can’t leave points at the free throw line.

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Making Sense Of A Crazy Saturday

January 13, 2013 Leave a comment

Any time an undefeated Duke team goes down it’s a big day in the conference. North Carolina State asserted themselves as a legitimate ACC title contender yesterday. Duke on the other hand is left holding their breath again after another injury, this time to Seth Curry. But lets go over yesterday’s games and find out just how big of an impact it will have on each team, and how I blew my pick for the game.

Never a good sign when a week before you goto Las Vegas, you manage to be wrong on every ACC pick you make for the day. I should probably stay clear of the sports book and avoid betting on Maryland to win the championship.

Duke: No team is going to go through conference play undefeated, it’s not possible with an 18 game schedule and true road games. The bigger question for Duke is just how serious the injury to Seth Curry is. Duke really struggled at times yesterday without Ryan Kelly, which is understandable given how much he means to them. Losing Curry will hurt Duke’s ability to go inside-out.

Why I messed up in taking Duke? Ryan Kelly was out and they were playing one of the top teams in conference on the road, I didn’t realize it at the time, but I put my trust in the hands of Josh Hairston, that wasn’t going to end well.

North Carolina State: It is always important to protect your home court. Beating a rival and the team considered to be the best in the conference goes a long way towards building your confidence. CJ Leslie played one of his best games, and after a slow start on the boards, the Wolfpack turned it around. The frontline of Howell and Leslie were too much for Duke to handle.

North Carolina: The Heels needed this win, and they needed to do it with a team effort. North Carolina was sinking quickly, which makes this an important win for the young Tar Heels. Grabbing a road win to avoid an 0-3 start and over one of the better defensive teams in the conference should give them momentum to build off of.

Florida State: No reason to sell any stock on the Seminoles. However, you never want to drop home games, but Florida State is still a major player in conference. They faced a North Carolina which is better than advertised, and had their backs against the wall. How Florida State responds this week will be very telling of who they are.

Virginia: I was nervous before the season started if Virginia would be able to play great defense over 18 games to make up for their lack of scoring. The North Carolina game was very telling about what Virginia could be. However, in their last two games they haven’t been able to get enough scoring to beat two of the worse teams in the ACC. Virginia needs to find offense, and they need to find it quick, or else they will have a tough time competing with the best teams in conference.

Clemson: The Tigers were just like North Carolina, a team in need of a win to help build confidence and grab momentum. Scoring is still an issue for Clemson, but a win is a win. They protected their home court and now have their first win in conference. They now have a road game against Wake Forest, a winnable game that could get them to 2-2.

Virginia Tech: Defense came through big yesterday. Sure it helps when your opponent shoots 13-21 from the free throw line. Virginia Tech was one of the teams with their back against the wall, and they went on the road to get a win. They finally held someone to under 70 in what feels like forever. Now for the Hokies they need to make sure they play strong defense every night.

Georgia Tech: I’m selling my shares of the Yellow Jackets. I thought they were a strong enough team to contend in the middle of the conference, but they are now 0-3. They are the only team without a win in the ACC. I still think they are a tough out, but right now they can’t quite put together a full 40 minutes of great basketball. They left too many points on the floor with missed free throws yesterday.

Boston College: Hard fought game for the Eagles, they are still very young and have played in two really close games so far in conference. Boston College is building confidence slowly. With how young they are, grabbing a road win in a close game is a lot to ask for. Wake Forest isn’t great, but Boston College still hasn’t learned how to win close games.

Wake Forest: I said it yesterday, and I still can’t believe I’m typing it again. Wake Forest might be able to go on a 4 game winning streak. They now have back to back wins in close games. They protected their home court and came from behind to get themselves to 2-2. The level of competition doesn’t matter when Wake Forest looked like one of the worst teams in the ACC in the preseason.

Maryland at Miami: This is a big game in the conference. It will be really important to see how a young Maryland team responds from losing at home to Florida State. The Terps blew a 12 point lead, and were at one point held without a FG for 6 plus minutes. How Maryland comes out will tell a lot about them. Miami on the other hand, lost Reggie Johnson and hasn’t skipped a beat. They have risen to the challenge of playing without one of their best players and still getting positive results. They were able to close out North Carolina on the road, and blew out Georgia Tech on the road. This win would go a long way in establishing Miami as a team to beat in the ACC.

I can’t make a pick for this game. Even though I’m in a great place to clear my head for this game, I can’t bring myself to remove myself from the game to make a prediction. So I’ll leave you with this picture of beautiful Miami! Go Terps! Fear the Turtle!

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ACC Weekend Preview

January 12, 2013 Leave a comment

It’s been a rough couple of days getting over the Terps game from Wednesday. I am still struggling to find the words to describe that game. It was the first time in awhile that I left the stadium feeling disappointed by Maryland.

Luckily, I am currently sitting on a balcony enjoying a beautiful Miami morning. This is one of the few things that could help me get over that Maryland game.

Regardless, this post is supposed to be about the games today, not me attempting to find positives and make sense of Wednesday night. Today features a good slate of games across the board. They do have to go head to head against the NFL Playoffs, but it should make for some fun checking into during commercials.

Duke at North Carolina State – 12:00 ESPN: Not much time to really settle into your day before this game starts. It’s a young season, but this is the biggest game to date, which became even more interesting when Duke lost Ryan Kelly. The Blue Devils don’t go very deep, and don’t have anyone else on the roster who brings what Ryan Kelly did to the table. North Carolina State gains a huge advantage at the 4 spot, with CJ Leslie now getting to go up against PJ Hairston or Amile Jefferson. Lorenzo Brown will have his hands full at both ends with Quinn Cook who is coming off a 23 point game against Clemson.

This game is tough to pick because of the injury to Ryan Kelly, but also how will North Carolina State deal with the pressure. Both on the court and off, Duke will make sure to pressure the ball, as they always do but also to prevent the ball from getting inside to CJ Leslie. If they can force him to catch the ball outside the paint, Duke will have a chance of being able to slow down Leslie and force him to be a passer. On the other hand, North Carolina State hasn’t responded well in high pressure games, is today the day they change that around? Can Scott Wood get enough open looks to extend the defense and free up Leslie?

My Pick: Duke: They are still the team to beat in conference, and Coach K is still the best coach in conference. It will be tough, but if any coach can get their team ready after losing someone to injury, it’s Coach K.

Virginia at Clemson – 12:00 ESPN3: This is the weakest game of the day, Virginia in true fashion, followed up their win against North Carolina by losing at Wake Forest on Wednesday night. Clemson scored 10 points in the first half at Duke on Tuesday. Virginia will look to keep the score low, Clemson will undoubtedly help with their poor shooting. It’s do or die time for Clemson, who could drop to 0-3 with a loss. As for Virginia, a win would get them back on track at 2-1 to stay in the hunt for an upper half of the conference finish.

Clemson struggled on Tuesday with Duke’s guard, primarily Quinn Cook. Granted he was coming off an 0-11 shooting night the game before. Either way, Clemson will have to find a way to slow down Joe Harris if they want to protect LittleJohn. Joe Harris will get his numbers, but most importantly if he is comfortable, then he will be able to execute the Virginia offense and set up high percentage looks for his teammates.

My Pick: Virginia: I have more faith in Coach Bennett getting his team to respond from a road loss than I do with Coach Brownell getting his team to play with urgency.

North Carolina at Florida State – 2:00 ESPN: Duke at NC ST will get most of the headlines, but this game is just as important to the conference race. After pulling out two road wins, the Noles return to Tallahassee to face a now in desperation mode Tar Heels team. Florida State has improved their defense over the past two games, and the win at Maryland should give them the confidence that they can compete with anyone in the conference. What should give them even more confidence heading into this game is the emergence of Okaro White in the post. White has elevated his game since conference play started, most notably on Wednesday with 20 points 9 rebounds and 6 blocks. For the Tar Heels, how will Reggie Bullock respond from an off shooting night against Miami? Bullock has to be a consistent scoring threat for a UNC team who lacks many scoring options.

My Pick: Florida State: Coming home with confidence is key for the Seminoles. The seniors on this team know that they can beat anyone in conference, and the freshman were just a part of them stealing a road win with great defense. Florida State should have everyone bought into Coach Hamilton’s defensive scheme now.

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech – 2:30 ESPN3: Ok, maybe I was a little too high on the Yellow Jackets at the start of conference play. Saw their games against Illinois and Saint Mary’s and felt confident they could steal a couple of games in conference. Georgia Tech doesn’t have many high volume scorers, but Virginia Tech’s poor defense and small line up can turn anyone into a big time scorer. Daniel Miller is coming off a great game in a loss to North Carolina Sate, so I would look to him to continue his solid play. The Virginia Tech bigs wouldn’t be as difficult as some of the other front lines in conference. Marcus Georges-Hunt is only a freshman, and he will have his hands full trying to slow down the nations leading scorer, Erick Green. Hunt’s numbers haven’t been great, but if he can make Green work for his baskets he will give Georgia Tech a chance to win.

For Virginia Tech, the key will be defense. They are giving up an average of 90 points in conference, and don’t have the type of scoring to match that. Georgia Tech isn’t a high scoring team, but if they are getting easy baskets in transitions and off of poor rotations, then the Hokies will be in an uphill battle to get a much needed win.

My Pick: Georgia Tech: It’s not just about being big on the Jackets at the start of conference play, it’s about believing that to win a game of basketball, you need to play defense. Don’t think Virginia Tech can get enough stops to keep this game within striking distance.

Boston College at Wake Forest – 4:00 ESPN3: A surprisingly good match up now that both teams won on Wednesday night. Boston College has shown a lot of heart so far, they battled North Carolina State to the very end, and then went on the road an put up 84 in a double digit win at Virginia Tech. Wake Forest was able to protect their home court against what looked like a surging Virginia team. By no stretch should you be turning off the NFL Playoffs to catch this game, but it’s one to keep an eye on. Boston College is about to enter a tough stretch of their schedule, and they can’t afford to drop winnable games, with not very many on the schedule. I can’t believe I’m typing this, but Wake Forest can potentially go on a 4 game winning streak. Trust me, I don’t get it either, and it won’t be easy for them. However, they have BC at home before going on the road to Clemson and Virginia Tech. If there was ever a time for Coach Bzdelik to grab some momentum to keep his job, this is the time.

My Pick: Boston College: Typing that last sentence about a Wake Forest 4 game winning streak did me in. I can’t see that happening one bit, better to grab the road team who just put up 84 in their previous road outing.

I’m going to do my best to keep up with the games, however can you really expect me to while this is my current view?

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Week 1 Power Rankings

January 7, 2013 Leave a comment

With the first weekend of ACC basketball under way, it’s time for our first real power rankings. Sure it’s only one conference game that everyone has played; with any ACC season there are going to be ups and downs and plenty of upsets. However, I thought this weekend showed us a lot about each team.

1) Duke – Nothing easier than getting Wake Forest at home as your first conference game. They are the team to beat and until that happens they will keep this spot.

2) Maryland – One of the three biggest wins this weekend came from an under-valued Terps team. With all of the talk about the weak non-conference schedule, they did what any good team does: beat an inferior team. Virginia Tech was never truly in the game; Maryland threw the first punch, sending a message to the rest of the ACC.

3 North Carolina State – They get bumped down in my rankings because there are still the questions about focus and attitude with this team. If they are the second best team in the conference, then they should take care of Boston College easily… not win by 4… even if it is on the road. The Wolfpack can ill afford dropping a game to a bottom level team if they want to keep pace for first.

4) Miami – Road wins are key in conference, double digit road wins are even bigger… playing without one of your top players and still grabbing a double digit road win is a great sign. I still think Miami is prone to drop a game they shouldn’t if they had a healthy Reggie Johnson, but this win should give the active players a boost that they can take care of business without him.

5) Virginia – I don’t think I’ve seen a team as up and down as this year’s Virginia team. They drop three games to CAA teams, beat Wisconsin on the road, win a game by scoring 46 points, and then hold UNC to under 55. They may play a slow tempo and not put up a lot of points, but they are efficient on offense, limit turnovers, and defend well. No one should take Virginia lightly right now.

6) Florida State – Littlejohn isn’t the stadium it used to be, but like I said before grabbing a road win is key. Florida State needed an opening game win to get on track in conference play. Clemson may not be great, but Florida State got back to playing their style of basketball, controlling tempo and playing hard fought defense.

7) North Carolina – The Tar Heels are in a rebuilding year. They shouldn’t have been a preseason ranked team and they shouldn’t have been picked to finish third either. They really struggled on Sunday at Virginia; they couldn’t find a rhythm and didn’t know what to do when Virginia has their plays read. I know Paige is young, but right now he can’t run Roy Williams system yet, and aside from McAdoo they don’t have anyone who can create.

8) Georgia Tech – I still believe that this team can finish in this range, which wouldn’t be a bad thing at all for them. Miami beat them badly at home, but maybe that’s what the Jackets needed. They aren’t one of the top teams in conference, but they can still feast on the mediocre teams and finish around eighth place.

9) Boston College – They took it to North Carolina State, but just couldn’t make enough plays down the stretch. Boston College looks like a team that will compete every night and give teams a hard time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them steal a game from someone who over looks them later in the year.

10) Clemson – They out together some runs against Florida State to bring the game back; however, they lack the players to really put together a solid 40 minute game. Not sure who on their team can carry them offensively and that’s a concern.

11) Virginia Tech – They fell quickly from the team who was 7-0 and had everyone in the country talking about them. Sure, Maryland was hot, but to give up 94 points to a conference is a bad sign about your defense. Even worse is the fact that they gave up 95 the game before. They can score, which is a positive, but this team won’t have legs come mid season if they trying to put up 90 points a game just to stay competitive and only go six/seven players deep.

12) Wake Forest – The Jeff Bzdelik farewell tour made its final stop in Durham. Not as bad as it could have gone, Wake Forest held Quinn Cook to 0-11 shooting, however he did have 14 assist.

Teams That Impressed

Maryland – Any time you put up 94 points in a conference, that’s impressive. Two freshman led the charge, while Dez Wells struggled with foul trouble and Nick Faust was out.

Virginia – Holding UNC to under 55 is huge. This is a win that can get the fans behind them.

Florida State – Everyone kept saying that the Noles started slow last year and still finished well. Winning at Clemson is a step towards repeating that.

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ACC Preview: Awards Watch List and Winners

January 4, 2013 Leave a comment

What am I doing tonight?
GOT TO GIVE THE PEOPLE!
What am I giving them?
GIVE THE PEOPLE WHAT THEY WANT!

Special thanks to Jalen Rose and Jacoby_ for that great little song! What do the people want you ask? The people want to know who will win ACC Coach of the Year, Freshman of the Year, and of course Player of the Year!

Note: I’m very aware that not everyone wants to know, but guess what, I’m going to give it to you anyway!

ACC Coach of the Year

Of course I’m not just going to give you my pick without pointing out who I think will be in contention for it. With the ACC as wide open as it is, there are a lot of potential candidates for the award. I’ll give you four people to watch out for and what they have to do to get the honor.

1) Mark Gottfried: North Carolina State: After a slow start, the Wolfpack look to be on the right foot entering conference play. A healthy mix of veterans and freshmen provide Coach Gottfried with a strong team to make a run at the ACC title. This team has preseason player of the year in C.J. Leslie, a deadly sharpshooter in Scott Wood, and a steady point guard in Lorenzo Brown. They provide North Carolina State a good core to lead the, through conference play.

However, this team was picked to finish first and was a preseason top 5 team nationally. As great as this is, it also hurts Coach Gottfried’s chances at winning Coach of the Year. Anything short of second place for North Carolina State is them under achieving. Say what you want about preseason polls, being picked first by your peers shows how highly they think of your team. Falling short of this isn’t living up to your expectations.

2) Mark Turgeon: Maryland: Amongst all of the new coaches, Coach Turgeon is the only one to have completely overhauled the roster in 1 year. Maryland only has two players who Coach Turgeon didn’t bring in (Pe’Shon Howard and James Padgett). His first year was injuries plagued and under manned, with only seven scholarship players active for most of the year. This year has been the opposite, Maryland legitimately goes ten deep with six of those players new to the team. If Maryland finishes top 4 in the conference following two years without playing in the postseason and losing their leading scorer from last year then I don’t see how Coach Turgeon isn’t the Coach of the Year.

What could hold back Coach Turgeon? The 12-1 record in the non-conference is truly misleading and this team comes out flat in conference play. Struggling to stay a float in the middle of the conference by just beating the lower tier teams, Maryland enters the conference tournament having to win one or two games to make the NCAA tournament. I don’t think this is likely, but if it were to happen then don’t expect much love from the rest of the conference for Maryland.

3) Brian Gregory: Georgia Tech: Another second year coach potentially in the race. Georgia Tech was picked to finish ninth in the preseason polls, but they are currently riding a seven game winning streak after a hard fought lose at Illinois. Their schedule also breaks well for them. Two of the three are winnable games, and in between the games against North Carolina are another seven winnable games. Best case scenario for them is winning two of the first three, grabbing six in that seven game stretch and then getting the last game of the year against Boston College to get to 9-9 in conference and 19-11 overall. Winning one in the ACC tournament might get them into the tournament. That’s a good turn around for the team picked ninth out of twelve teams.

This sounds great now, but Georgia Tech has some holes they have been able to cover in their weak non-conference. Winning games at Virginia, at Virginia Tech, and even at Clemson might be too tall of a task for them. Regardless, Coach Gregory is building a strong team for the future. With a renovated stadium, the future looks bright for the Yellow Jackets.

4) Mike Krzyzewski: Duke: I don’t think I need to sit here and make a case for Coach K being Coach of the Year. This team is playing better than anyone else in the country. Their résumé is unbelievable for this point in the season. If they keep up their level of play it’ll be tough to not give Coach K the nod.

A grueling conference schedule with a lot of good guards exposes Duke’s lack of depth at the guard position. Quinn Cook doesn’t turnout to be the point guard that can carry Duke through an 18 game schedule and they drop a couple of games to finish second of third. Even if they win the conference, winning by one game over let’s say North Carolina State or Maryland will mean more for those coaches chances than Coach K’s first place finish.

My Pick: Mark Turgeon, Maryland: As always say whatever about my Maryland bias. However, if the Terps finish in the top 4 of the conference, given the roster overhaul and the preseason expectations, I just don’t see how someone beats him out for it. To go from no post season to potential conference title contender in one year is a great accomplishment for any coach.

Freshman of the Year

This year there a lot of good freshmen in the league, but what makes this tough to pick is that many are contributing in minor roles. What I mean, is that many of the top teams are built around experienced players. So the freshmen are getting minutes and contributing, but they aren’t the core player leading the team. Ether way, here are my top choices:

1) T.J. Warren, Forward: North Carolina State: T.J. Is shooting an amazing 69.4% from the field on an average of 8.5 field goal attempts per game. At 6’8″ he is also stepping out to behind the arc, not often, but he did go 2-2 against Norfolk St. Warren plays an average of 26.5 minutes per game, however this is sixth on a team with only seven players averaging double digit minutes.

2) Rasheed Sulaimon, Guard: Duke: A freshman starting on the number 1 team in the country is quite a feat to accomplish this early in a career. His biggest game was 17 points at home against then ranked #4 Ohio State. However, since then, Rasheed has only gotten to double digits three times in six games. His season averages are a modest 11.8 ppg, 2.5 apg, 3.5 rebs. I say modest because he is shooting at 41.7% from the field and 38% from three with 1.5 made three pointers a game. Duke lacks depth at the guard position especially guards who can score, so Sulaimon is in a position to look to score and pick up 30.6 minutes a game.

3) Charles Mitchell, Forward: Maryland: Got to show some love to Stuck Like Chuck! If you watch Maryland, you’ll notice that Charles is a rebound machine when he is on the court. At 16.3 minutes per game, it’s not enough to really put him in serious contention though. Charles averages a solid 6.5 ppg and 6.8 rebs. What is most impressive about Charles is the rebounding though. He has posted double digit rebounds in four games, most notable 10 vs Kentucky, but his season high in minutes is 24. According SCACCHoops tempo based stats, Charles Mitchell is number 1 in rebounds per 40 minutes at 16.7, second on the list is Reggie Johnson at 14.3.

4) Robert Carter, Forward: Georgia Tech: The Georgia native has come on lately, with 4 double digit games in the past 5 games. He recently got the start, and picked up 13 points and 12 rebounds in a win over Chattanooga. Averaging 24.8 minutes per game, Carter is at an even 10 ppg and 6.8 rebounds per game. With his recent games have been, I would expect those numbers to continue to increase.

My Pick: Robert Carter, Georgia Tech: As the season progresses, I think names will be added and removed from this list. For right now though, I like that Carter looks like he is on the up swing. I’m not sure how much more we will see from Suliamon, or how Warren’s role will change vs ACC competition, and I don’t think Charles scores enough or gets enough, minutes to be seriously considered.

Others to watch: Rodney Purvis (NCST), Marcus Georges-Hunt (GT), Shaq Cleare (MD)

Player of the Year

I think right now there is a clear cut front runner for this award. The other two people I mention since they will be the ones leading their team if they make a run at first place.

1) Mason Plumlee, Forward: Duke: I don’t think there’s any question that he is the front runner. The numbers speak for themselves: 18.8 ppg (second in the league), 11.2 Rebs (first in the league), 63.4% FG (third in the league). It’s clear cut that Duke works through Mason, his usage rate (25.6%) is the highest of anyone on Duke. He also puts up his best numbers against their best competition. Against Minnesota (20 points, 17 rebounds), next night vs VCU (17 points, 10 rebounds), and the next night vs Louisville (16 points, 7 rebounds). Coming back from the Bahamas against Ohio Sate he posted another monster game with 21 points and 17 rebounds. Not much more to point out about Mason Plumlee.

2) C.J. Leslie, Forward: North Carolina State: The preseason Player of the Year this season is currently averaging 15.8 ppg and 7.5 Rebs. He is fifth in the conference in FG % and seventh in points per game. Leslie is the goto player for North Carolina State, when they need a basket, they turn to the super athletic power forward. Considered by some to be a lottery pick, Leslie returned for his Junior season at North Carolina State. Can’t imagine that he would pass that up another year, this is likely to be his last season in the ACC. If North Carolina State is going to win the league, it will come from a great season by C.J. Leslie.

3) Alex Len, Forward: Maryland: The numbers are rather pedestrian for someone considered to be a top 5 pick in this years NBA draft. Alex Len is averaging 13.3 ppg (tied fifteen in the league), 8.0 Rebs (sixth in the league), 2.3 bpg (second in the league), solid numbers, but are they good enough to merit ACC Player of the Year? Right now, no, but if Maryland is going to make a run to the ACC title, one would picture his minutes improving from 24.5 per game and thus his production to follow. It looks as if Maryland goes away from him a bit in weaker games. But vs better competition, his numbers are much better then the averages. Against Kentucky he finished with 23 points, 12 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 10-18 shooting. In the ACC/Big Ten Challenge at Northwestern: 13 points, 13 rebounds, 2 blocks, and then vs George Mason: 12 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks. Like I said the numbers aren’t as great as you would expect, but if Maryland is going to make a run, it will be through Alex Len.

Players who just missed the cut: Erick Green (VT) and James Michael McAdoo (UNC)

First Team All-ACC

G – Seth Curry, Duke
G – Erick Green, Virginia Tech
F – Mason Plumlee, Duke
F – Alex Len, Maryland
F – C.J. Leslie, North Carolina State

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ACC Preview: Top 10 Games To Watch

January 4, 2013 Leave a comment

It’s here everyone!! We are officially less than 24 hours away from tip off of what looks to be one of the more interesting ACC seasons. Unbalanced schedule, two extra games, and no clear cut second place team should make this season a memorable one. Sure next season great with the additions of Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, and maybe Louisville, along with hopefully a F U last season from Maryland. However next season will be even more unbalanced and the new guys will be feeling their way into the conference. Anyway not to get too far from the point, out of all the ACC games I’ve picked out 26 that right now I’m excited for, and think will get better as the season goes. Out of those these are my top ten games right now.

Side note: This list will probably change often as the season goes on, I’m aware of this.

10) North Carolina at Duke: February 13 9:00: I know what you are thinking, but the second match-up between them usually has more on the line. Also, I’m all in on the Big Ten, so I’m over this rivalry! Seriously though, what I think hurts this match up is how over powered UNC has looked on the road against good teams. They get tested on the road before this, but for many of these players who didn’t see the floor as much last year, this is a tough Duke team to go on the road in a rivalry game and be competitive.

9) Maryland at Duke: January 26 1:00: I like how the Terps match up with Duke this year. However, same thing goes as the above match up, Maryland has too many players who didn’t see the floor last year to handle a trip to Duke. I love my Terps but this is a tall order, but a good learning experience for them to play in the toughest stadium in the ACC.

8) Georgia Tech at North Carolina State: January 9 8:00: North Carolina State has shown that they take some plays off on defense, and sometimes try to coast through games. This game is on Wednesday before State welcomes Duke to Raleigh and goes to College Park. Only the second game of a young ACC season, but a Georgia Tech who has gone on the road and thrown punches with Illinois. The Wolfpack can’t get caught looking ahead to match up against #1 Duke until they take care of a much improved and riding high Yellow Jacket team.

7) North Carolina at Maryland: March 6 7:00: Most likely the last time the Heels come to College Park. Senior night for discount double check Jimmy P aka New York native James Padgett! Maryland finished the season with 3 out of 4 on the road, if they are around the top 4 at this point in the year they will need to take care of business at home to secure a first round bye in the ACC tournament. This game could be big for seeding in the ACC tournament with UNC likely to be around the top 4, but Roy Williams can’t overlook a trip to a place he has struggled with the Duke that weekend.

6) North Carolina at North Carolina State: January 26 7:00: In retrospect I’m not sure why I ranked this game so highly, especially after writing about Jimmy P’s senior game. However, it’s a rivalry game and UNC catches this game in a stretch of three tough games (Maryland, Georgia Tech, and at NC St). This stretch will go a long way in defining where North Carolina stands in terms of competing for an ACC title.

5) Miami at Duke: March 2 6:00: The Hurricanes were able to get the best of the Blue Devils last season. This year Duke gets a Reggie Johnson free trip to Coral Gables, which makes that games less appealing. This is Miami’s last road game, and if they are in need of a signature win for the tournament, this would go a long way. With the team Miami has, I’m sure they will be looking forward to a chance to get to play Duke at full strength, especially if they find themselves in fourth or fifth place.

4) North Carolina State at Maryland: January 16 7:00: A match up of two teams likely to be battling for second place this season and their only match up. For Maryland, the nation hasn’t been giving them credit for the 12 game winning streak. With how the wheels have fallen off Virginia Tech and Florida State, that still won’t turn people on to them, but a win against North Carolina State will get people’s attention. For the Wolfpack, home vs Georgia Tech, vs Duke, then trip to College Park, nothing to get you into ACC play than that stretch.

3) Duke at North Carolina: March 9 9:00: It never matters how each teams season is going, this game will always mean something. The Tar Heels could be in trouble coming into this game, but they would want nothing more than to beat Duke at home. With the season Duke is having, the expectation is to sweep the Tar Heels.

2) North Carolina State at Duke: February 7 9:00: These two teams expect to be competing for first place in the standings and North Carolina Pride. The second match up should bring more experience, more hate, and some battle scars from the ACC season. Possible revenge game for either team depending on who wins the first match up.

1) Duke at Maryland: February 16 6:00: First off, you’re reading a Maryland focused blog and one written by someone who gets chills thinking about “The Duke Game”, so don’t be pissed that I put thigh number 1. Also, this is the last time that Duke will come to The Comcast Center for a game. Don’t kid yourself if you think the ACC schedules Duke at Maryland next season, they don’t want to give Maryland fans what they want and Coach K doesn’t ever want to play in College Park again. This will be one of the best atmospheres in all of college basketball this season. Maryland could be 5-1, possibly even 6-0 and a top 20 team hosting the most likely #1 team in the country. Saturday game during the semester, with all of the students on campus, and enough time for them to partake in some adult festivities before hand. Find a way to turn the commentary off, put the volume up, and get ready to hear why Maryland has one of the best home court advantages in the country!

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ACC Preview Part 1: Looking at the Conference Tiers

January 2, 2013 Leave a comment

As we get ready for ACC play, we will be looking at the whole conference and how Maryland stacks up against it. Later in the week look out for our conference predictions along with Player of the Year candidates. For the first part, lets just look at the conference in terms of tiers.

Tier 1: ACC Title Contenders

This year the ACC is tough to judge, some of the teams that looked like contenders in the preseason have faded, and others have come on strong. Also, the two additional games added to how tough it is to know what a team needs to do to be in contention down the stretch. Either way, many things stay true no matter what. To win the conference you need to be good at home, have experience, and be deep. Teams that win the conference typically have three players scoring at a high rate, while getting consistent contributions from the bench. You do also need some luck with how your schedule breaks.

1) Duke: Right now it looks like this is Duke’s conference to lose. Quinn Cook has improved and emerged as a legitimate starting ACC point guard, which was a question mark preseason. As for the seniors, Mason Plumlee (19.5 ppg and 11.6 rpg) looks like the ACC Player of the Year front runner. Seth Curry (17.1 ppg) is shooting an impressive 41.9% from three, and Ryan Kelly (12.4 ppg) is shooting the three at 42.9%. This team has the experience, not just this year but in past seasons, and with these three players it is tough for other teams in the league to match up with them.

Where can Duke struggle, you ask? As I mentioned the point guard position was uncertain for them. Quinn Cook is playing better then expected, but at 2.5 turnovers per game, he is not as steady as Duke would want. They also do not have a true back-up for him, in case of foul trouble or poor play. Duke travels to North Carolina St, Miami, Maryland, and North Carolina, all those are tough stadiums with veteran guards.

2) Maryland: I know that we are a Maryland blog, but don’t sleep on Maryland as a title contender in conference. Maryland hasn’t played anyone of note except for the three point loss to Kentucky to open the season. However, they have avoided any ugly loses, and aside from Stony Brook and George Mason (neutral site) took care of everyone easily. They lack experience, which can hurt them especially on the road. James Padgett, Nick Faust, and Alex Len are the most experienced players from last season, but none of them were truly dominating players. However, Maryland ranks 8th nationally in rebounding, 5th in assist per game, and 10th in FG percentage. They only have two players averaging double figures in scoring, but at 76.5 ppg and one player over 25 minutes per game, that is more of product of Coach Turgeon looking to spread the scoring. Alex Len and Dez Wells do most of the scoring, and Maryland gets solid point guard play from Junior Pe’Shon Howard and Freshman Seth Allen.

The schedule for the Terps breaks nicely. They start at home with games against ice cold Virginia Tech and an out of sorts Florida State. They travel to Miami, but with Reggie Johnson out, that doesn’t look as bad as before. They end the season at Georgia Tech, at Wake Forest, vs North Carolina, and at Virginia, not very daunting looking at how Wake, UNC, and UVa have started the year.

3) North Carolina State: It’s been an up and down start to the season for the Wolfpack, but that is too be expected with a young team learning to handle big expectations. Since the stretch of games that included a blowout loss to Oklahoma State, a narrow 2-point escape of UNC-Ashville, and loss at Michigan, the Pack has strung together seven wins in a row including UConn at the Garden and Stanford at home. North Carolina State ranks 10th in points per game and 1st in FG percentage. Freshman Ty Warren has been a huge boost lately, scoring in double figures in the past three games, but doing so at 73% from the field. Preseason Player of the Year, C.J. Leslie is still the player the watch on this team. Currently averaging 15.8 points per game and 7.5 rebounds per game, and shooting at 59.2%, the Junior forward is leading this team.

North Carolina State still has holes to fill. First off is their defense, North Carolina State gives up the third most points per game in conference at 69.5 points per game. But from watching them, you can see that they take plays off sometimes. Michigan built up a huge lead against them, and once they brought the score back, they still couldn’t get the stops to tie the game or take the lead. After starting at Boston College, the Wolfpack play a sneaky good Georgia Tech team, Duke, and then goto Maryland. That stretch along with at Virginia, home vs Miami, and at Duke could be the pivotal points of the year for them.

Tier 2: Outside Shot at Contending

I promise these wont be as long! But these are the teams that could push for a top 4 finish and get a bye in the ACC Tournament.

1) North Carolina: Just like their in state rival, North Carolina State, they have been up and down to start the year. North Carolina has looked uncompetitive at Indiana and for most of the game against Butler, came apart at Texas, and allowed East Carolina to put 60 in the second half in Chapel Hill while escaping by 6. Of course, in typical ACC fashion, the put together a complete team effort and beat #20 UNLV at home. So who are the Tar Heels, I’m not sure Roy Williams knows at this point. They are top 5 nationally in points per game (4th), rebounds per game (3rd), and assists per game (1st). However, the also turn the ball over 14 times per game, and shoot dead last in conference from the free throw line, while giving up the second most points in conference.

The Heels play one of the tougher schedules in conference. The road game at FSU, followed by Maryland and Georgia Tech at home, then at North Carolina state could trip them up. Also ending the season at Maryland and home vs Duke might keep them on the bubble heading into the ACC tournament.

2) Miami: The Hurricanes get bumped down a tier with the injury of Reggie Johnson. He is out 4-6 weeks, which takes him out games at Georgia Tech, at UNC, vs Maryland, and vs Duke. He might also be out for the game at North Carolina State, as long with BC and FSU. This stretch is important to Miami, since it is the only time they face Maryland and North Carolina State. Aside from the injury to Johnson, Shane Larkin and Durant Scott are putting together solid seasons from the guard positions.

Miami does struggle to score the ball, ranking 8th in the conference. While their guards can score, they are getting everyone involved in the game, the Canes are 281st in the country at 11.3 assist per game. For them to have a shot, they need Reggie Johnson back sooner rather than later.

3) Georgia Tech: Ok, even I’ll admit that it is crazy putting them in this status, but hear me out. The Jackets don’t have a single bad loss, they also don’t have a good win. They played Illinois much closer than the 13 point loss looks and hold opponents to 53.1 points per game. They are getting well balanced production from recent Kentucky transfer, Stacey Poole Jr. Could be a nice asset once he gets into the swing of playing.

What has me sold on Georgia Tech pushing for a top 6 finish in conference is their schedule. It starts rough, although getting Miami at home without Reggie Johnson helps. But between their games against North Carolina, they get seven winnable games. It seems crazy to think, but they could enter the second Carolina game at 9-3.

Tier 3: The Awkward Middle Teams

These are the teams caught in the middle, finishing around 500. They aren’t having a terrible year, but their fans aren’t particularly thrilled either. Hence, they are awkwardly in the middle.

1) Virginia: The Cavaliers are as confusing as North Carolina and North Carolina State. The major difference, is the slow pace basketball, which is sure to put you to sleep at once this year (January 9 at Wake Forest 9:00 pm, don’t take any nighttime meds or you’ll be gone at the first under 12 timeout). Virginia is last in scoring and one a game scoring 46 points, Mike D’antoni just threw up after hearing that. Seriously thoug, I know Coach Bennett’s style is to slow the game down on offense and defense. Maintain possession and allow no easy baskets. However, they are missing the ultra efficient player in Mike Scott who was able to lead them to 12 wins last season in conference.

2) Florida State: The offense has been inconsistent, and the defense has been spotty. Coach Hamilton builds his teams on defense, and Florida State typically ranks in the top 5 nationally in defense. According to Kenpom, their adjusted defense is ranked 85th. Loses to Minnesota and Florida look bad only because of how much they were outplayed by. Loses to South Alabama and Mercer raise questions about their consistency. Mid season games at Miami, Maryland and Duke at home, and at Georgia Tech might stick them in a tough hole to climb out of.

3 Virginia Tech: I wonder if first year coach Johnson asked Santa to bring him back to December 2 for Christmas. The Hokies were on a seven game win streak, and looked like the hottest team in the country after beating #15 Oklahoma State at home. Fast forward to January 2nd and Virginia Tech has dropped 4 out of 6 including at home to Georgia Southern and a 26 point loss to BYU, which is triumphed by the 36 point loss to Colorado State. Erick Green is having a great year, leading the ACC scoring, but Virginia Tech allows the most point per game in conference at 73.1. No one else allows over 70 (UNC is close at 69.9 and NCST is 69.5), and they are scoring 77.1, which is only a 4 point difference, edging out Wake Forest and Boston College for smallest point differential.

Tier 4: The Basement

There is no such thing as a sure thing in the ACC, especially on the road. However, this is about as close as you’ll come to teams you should beat if you expect to be dancing in March.

1) Clemson: The Tigers are struggling in Coach Brownell’s second year in charge. They don’t score much (203rd nationally), they don’t rebound well (229th), they don’t set each other up well (213th in assist), and they shoot below 50% from the field (45.9%). When you aren’t doing any of those things correctly, you really hate to see Florida State, at Duke, and Virginia as your first three games.

2) Boston College: I’ll admit that in the preseason I saw Boston College as a team could grab about 6-7 wins and finish 8th or 9th. I don’t think that’s the case anymore, but a sophomore heavy team will continue to gain experience in Coach Donahue’s system and against tough competition. While you never want to finish near the bottom of your league, Boston College has to most to gain compared to other two teams in this tier.

3) Wake Forest: As I type this, Wake Forest leads late in the second half against Xavier. Any win for them is a good win, and would be a good way to honor their former coach, the late Skip Prosser. C.J. Harris and Travis McKie continue to put up points for the Demon Deacons, but their isn’t much else going on with them. The stretch of NCST, at Georgia Tech, Duke, at Maryland, and at UNC, will put a nail in not only their season but most likely Coach Bzdelik’s career at Wake Forest.

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ACC Buy or Sell; Looking at Preseason Expectations vs Reality

December 19, 2012 Leave a comment

I know it’s been awhile. But it’s a busy time of the year, and with Maryland still in the easy part of the schedule, it’s tough to really find anything ground breaking to write about. It’s too early to be drawing conclusions about where this team will finish.

While its still early, we can look around at the rest of the ACC to see how everyone is doing compared to their preseason expectations.

Boston College: Buy

Boston College was picked to finish last in the league. I think they are still on pace to finish around there, however I think they can edge out Wake Forest for last. It might now mean much, but it is still beating their expectations. They picked up a break in the conference schedule getting Clemson and Wake Forest twice this year. Their one meeting with Georgia Tech is in Chestnut Hill which could help him to get another win. I believe they can get 3-4 wins in conference.

Clemson: Sell

The Tigers were picked to finished 8th in the conference. From what I’ve seen I think they could struggle with this. Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech were picked to finish behind them but have shown more. Clemson is also struggling to protect their home court. LittleJohn Coliseum was one of the tougher stadiums to play at, but Clemson has dropped a couple of games at home this year, which isn’t common. They also have a tough schedule from the beginning of February to the end of the season, which will show a lot about the fight in this team.

Duke: Buy

Tough to buy anymore on the team picked to finish second in the conference. However, Duke has overcome every early test this season. Marshall Plumlee looks like a legitimate ACC player of the year candidate, and Coach K is doing one of his better coaching jobs. The schedule also starts well for the Blue Devils getting three of four at home to start and finishing with two out of three games at home.

Florida State: Sell

Not sure I have seen a team struggle as much on the offensive end as the Seminoles. I know they are a team based on defense, but still. They were billed to have a potential ACC player of the year in Michael Snear, and one of the nation’s best defenses. Snear LEDs the team with 14.2 points per game, but on a horrendous 37% field goal percentage. Their rebounding is an even bigger concern then Snears shooting percentage. Florida State ranks 204th in the country in rebounds per game (34.7). They also have a tough schedule, having to play most of the bottom feeders on the road.

Georgia Tech: Buy

The Jackets were picked to finish 9th in the conference. I think they can get up to 7 or 8 at the end of the season. It will be important to see how they fare at the beginning of ACC season, and how they bounce back night in and night out. They have one of the toughest schedules to start off ACC play: Miami, @NCST, VT, @Duke, @UNC. In two early test this season, Georgia Tech hasn’t been able to find a win (vs Al, @Illinois) but they looked much better than anticipated. This team seems to be getting better every game, they are worth keeping an eye on.

Maryland: Buy

Maryland was picked to finish 6th in the conference. With the fall of Florida State and North Carolina, there is room for Maryland to get into the top 4. Important note for tie breakers, Maryland plays Miami in Coral Gables and North Carolina State in College Park. Those two games could be huge for end of the year tie breakers. Maryland ranks third and fourth in the nation in rebounds and assist respectively. Nick Faust jumper looks to be improving, Dez Wells has shown how important he is to Maryland’s offense, and there are very few players in the conference that can match up with Alex Len.

Miami: Hold

The Canes were picked to finish fourth in the conference, which I still think is fair. They have looked good this year, and I could see them getting up to as high as second. Their one loss comes without Durand Scott. They have wins over Michigan State and a true road game at UMass. The areas of concern for Miami and are rebounding and assist. Despite having a big front court, they are only pulling in 36.1 rebounds per game, ranking them at 146 in the nation. Their 12.6 assist per game are also a concern because they will need steady point guard play to win in the conference.

North Carolina: Sell

Hard to buy into any team that gives up 61 points in the second half to ECU. North Carolina scores at a rapid pace, but it will be interesting to see if they can continue that pace in the conference. They also check in and out of games, and sometimes just completely check out. Not sure who the second player is that they can count on night in and night out to back up McAdoo. When it comes to conference games, especially on the road, they will not be able to take multiple plays off.

North Carolina State: Sell

The ship appears to be back on track in Raleigh. However, given how Duke looks and some of the other teams in the conference, I’m still not sold on North Carolina State finishing in the top three. Last night against Stanford their offense was clicking, but they were allowing the Cardinal to hang around with their poor defense. North Carolina State is struggling to put together a full game.they are number 1 in field goal shooting, but they rank in the 200s in assist per game and rebounds per game. Their bigs also have trouble with committing fouls.

Virginia: Hold

Seventh looks like the correct spot for the Cavaliers. The win at Wisconsin is a nice win for them, and has really helped to push them in the right direction. However, in a conference with high scoring teams like Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State, it’s tough to see Virginia finding enough offense to maintain pace in a lot of their games. Tony Bennett has done a good job at Virginia, but it’s hard to imagine how long his future will be with teams that done score much in a conference that is picking up offensive powers in Syracuse and Louisville next year.

Virginia Tech: Buy

Hokies have exceed the expectations of being picked 11th in the conference by going 7-0 to start the year. However, they fell on the road to West Virginia (not bad) and at home vs Georgia Southern (raises some concerns). They still have a true road game on the schedule left, @BYU, which could present some trouble for the Hokies. They still look like they will finish higher then the predicted 11th place finish from the preseason, which is a big step for first year coach James Johnson.

Wake Forest: Sell

I still can’t believe that they weren’t picked to finish last in the conference. Wake Forest has got to be one of the worst teams in the conference, ever. Wouldn’t surprise me if they lost every game in conference, I think the only chance they have for a win in conference is at home vs Boston College.

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